The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday released the latest bulletin predicting that the southwest monsoon will likely advance into certain parts of the South Bay of Bengal, South Andaman Sea, and Nicobar Islands within the next 24 hours.
This suggests that the monsoon is actually progressing ahead of schedule, as it typically reaches the Andaman Sea and South Bay of Bengal around May 22 and May 26 respectively. If the monsoon arrives in these areas before May 20, it will have a head start of at least 2-5 days. It is worth noting that the monsoon is known for its unpredictable behavior. Last year, it reached and crossed the Andaman & Nicobar Islands on May 16, nearly a week earlier than its normal date of May 22. However, it only arrived in Kerala on May 29-30, just a day or two ahead of schedule.
Historically, the onset of the monsoon in Kerala has varied significantly, with dates ranging from as early as May 19 (in 1990) to as late as June 18 (in 1972). This variation is largely influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the preceding winter, along with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a tropical wave that circulates around the equator every 30-40 days.
This year, experts started predicting the monsoon's arrival a few days ago after the formation of a high-pressure area called the "Mascarenas High" near Madagascar, where the monsoon originates. The recent forecasts regarding the monsoon's progress indicate that the system is on track, if not slightly early.
The southwest monsoon is closely monitored every year and generates excitement among weather enthusiasts. It accounts for approximately 70% of India's annual rainfall and plays a crucial role in the country's agriculture, food security, and inflation.
The quantity, spatial distribution, and pattern of monsoon rains not only directly impact the Kharif crops but also indirectly affect the winter crop season through their influence on reservoir storage levels. Therefore, any delay in the onset and progression of these seasonal showers typically results in delayed sowing, triggering a detrimental chain reaction.
As the monsoon continues to unfold, meteorologists and farmers will closely monitor its progress and adapt their plans accordingly. The arrival of the monsoon is eagerly awaited as it holds the key to India's agricultural success and overall economic well-being.
