A cyclonic circulation is currently stationed over north Jharkhand, with a trough extending from this circulation to Manipur in lower tropospheric levels. Additionally, another cyclonic circulation is situated over Northeast Jharkhand in the middle and upper tropospheric levels. These systems are expected to trigger widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated thunderstorms and lightning over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim from March 21 to 26, 2024. Heavy rainfall and snowfall are also likely in certain areas, including Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Assam, and Meghalaya, during specific intervals within this timeframe.
Western Disturbance Influence
A Western Disturbance, currently observed as a trough in middle tropospheric westerlies is expected to affect the Western Himalayan Region starting from the night of March 23, 2024. This disturbance will bring scattered to fairly widespread light rainfall/snowfall with isolated thunderstorms and lightning over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. Isolated light rainfall is also forecasted in Punjab on specific dates.
Temperature Trends
Maximum temperatures are expected to deviate from normal ranges in various parts of the country. A drop in temperatures is anticipated in Northwest India over the next 24 hours, followed by a gradual rise thereafter. Conversely, certain regions, including parts of Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, are expected to experience above-normal temperatures. Hot and humid weather conditions are likely to persist in specific regions like Rayalaseema, Kerala, Mahe, Saurashtra, and Kutch over the next five days.
IMD's Nationwide 5-Day Forecast
The IMD predicts a continuation of the trough affecting the eastern and northeastern regions, resulting in widespread precipitation and localized thunderstorms over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and Sikkim from March 22 to 27. Isolated heavy rainfall/snowfall is also expected during certain periods in Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Assam, and Meghalaya.
Moreover, isolated to scattered rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning is forecasted over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, and Kerala on March 22.
